Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, policymakers in Chicago have been trying to understand how to best design supports and target resources – but housing data at the local level is limited and often out of date.
The Chicago Housing Stability Dashboard is a tool from the Inclusive Economy Lab at the University of Chicago that intends to fill in the gaps by constructing a set of key leading indicators of housing instability. The dashboard combines administrative, commercial, and survey data to inform policymakers in near-real time of changes in the scale and distribution of housing instability risk across our city.
We know that a history of disinvestment and segregation in both the public and private sectors are central to understanding the state of housing insecurity in Chicago and across the country. The disaggregation by race and ethnicity that is included in the dashboard wherever possible is intended to be interpreted in light of this history.
Looking for key takeaways? Click here to read our December 2021 Update.
If you are a Chicagoan at risk of homelessness, call 311 and ask for “short term help” to see what resources may be available. If you are a tenant looking for legal assistance, you can reach the Lawyers’ Committee for Better Housing by visiting rentervention.com or calling (312) 347-7600. For more information, please visit this resource page for renters or this resource page for homeowners on the City of Chicago’s website.
Last Update: Sep 30, 2021
-14.8%
-0.4%
-4.2%
-0.5%
Who is represented: Chicago consumers. We use “consumers” to refer to all adults who have an active credit file and enough information to calculate a credit score – most commonly by having a credit card or a loan. In 2015, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) estimated that 89% of US adults have an active credit file, but communities with historically lower rates of access to credit may have lower rates of representation.
Why it’s important: We know that financial security and housing instability are closely linked. Research on eviction in Cook County for example, shows that “tenants who appear in eviction court have very poor credit in the run up to eviction.” Although not everyone with a subprime credit score is at risk of immediate housing instability, credit indicators can provide a picture of a ZIP code’s overall financial health.
Keep in mind: Most adults in Chicago have credit files, but not all do. Renters are less likely to have a credit file than homeowners, while estimates indicate that adults in census tracts with a higher percentage of Black or Hispanic residents are less likely to have a credit file than those in places with a larger share of white residents. Disparities in “prime” and “subprime” scores reflect a variety of factors, including the ways both government and lenders have historically failed to provide access to credit to consumers of color on the same terms as white consumers.
Tracking with national trends, the share of consumers with credit scores considered “subprime” has decreased across the city since the pandemic started, with some ZIPs losing up to one-fifth of their subprime consumers. Pandemic response policies like stimulus checks, CARES mortgage forbearance programs, and pauses on student loan payments may have helped some consumers improve their credit. Recently, however, some ZIPs have started to gain subprime consumers. Those ZIPs are largely in the outer southwest edges of the city and on the North side.
Falling behind on a debt payment – what credit reporting companies call a “delinquency” – is one indication that a household is experiencing financial distress. The share of consumers with one or more delinquencies has decreased since the pandemic started. But in recent months, the share of consumers with delinquencies has stayed relatively constant.
When we look at the share of consumers with specific types of debt, we see a similar story, with decreases since the start of the pandemic that more recently have flattened or begun to rise. Since last quarter, credit card delinquencies rose across the South and West sides and in parts of the Loop. Auto loan delinquencies are also rising in some parts of the city, including parts of the Loop, the near West side, and the far North side.
Methodology: Credit categories reflect TransUnion®’s standard credit bands. Consumers with partial credit records - meaning there is not sufficient credit use data to determine a credit score - are not included. This means that our estimates of financial instability are solely informative of financial behavior in the formal credit market. Q1 2020 is used to proxy ‘normal’ credit conditions, and to map how credit has changed over the course of the pandemic. Given pandemic closures began in late March 2020, it is unlikely consumer credit responded to COVID-related events within the period.
The views and opinions expressed in this dashboard are those of the Inclusive Economy Lab only and do not necessarily reflect, or purport to reflect, the views or positions of TransUnion®.
Last Update: Sep 29, 2021
16.7%
39%
10.6%
7.6%
Who is represented: Responses are weighted to be representative of the Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), which includes close to 10 million people in the Chicagoland area (including Naperville, Illinois and Gary, Indiana).
Why it’s important: The Census Pulse survey is designed to be representative of all adults in a given geography, so it can give us a broad picture of how renters and owners are doing.
Keep in mind: The survey has had several phases, with slight changes to the survey between each phase. Survey waves are combined into a two-week rolling average to increase sample size for breakouts by respondent characteristics.
About one out of six renters were behind on housing payments in early October 2021, about the same share as a year before; a significant portion of renters who are behind report it is likely they will be evicted. In early October 2021, 39% of renters behind on housing payments considered themselves at risk of eviction in the next two months, while only 8% of owners behind on payments believe the same about foreclosure. Overall, owners have fared better than renters during the pandemic. They have been more confident in making future housing payments and more likely to be caught up on payments.
Despite large variations over time, white respondents report being more confident in paying next month’s rent or mortgage than respondents of color. White respondents also more consistently report being caught up on housing payments.
Survey questions: 1. “How confident are you that your household will be able to pay your next rent or mortgage payment on time?” Respondents with no or slight confidence are counted as not confident. 2. “How likely is it that your household will have to leave this home or apartment within the next two months because of eviction/foreclosure?” Both very and somewhat likely were counted as being at-risk of eviction or foreclosure. This question was only asked to respondents who indicated that they were not caught up on payments. 3. “Is this household currently caught up on rent/mortgage payments?” This is a yes/no question.
Methodology: Publicly released Household Pulse data files include one variable on ethnicity, which indicates whether a respondent is of Hispanic, Latino or Spanish origin, and one variable on race, which has four options: Asian alone, Black alone, white alone, any other race alone, or races in combination. In this document, “Hispanic” refers to respondents who identified as Hispanic of any race, “Black” refers to respondents who self-identified as “Black alone” and not of Hispanic origin, and “white” refers to respondents who identified as “white alone” and not of Hispanic origin. Because not all groups have a sample size that allows us to confidently track survey results over time, we chose to highlight estimates for Black, Hispanic, and white households here. For a full accounting of Census Pulse Survey methodology, please visit the U.S. Census website.
Last Update: Nov 27, 2021
$3,657
8.6%
51.3%
66.4%
7.9%
Who is represented: Chicagoans likely to be at elevated risk of housing instability. Nearly 75,000 people applied to the Department of Housing’s emergency assistance program at the start of the pandemic. About one quarter of those applicants were Chicago renters who later responded to any one of several Inclusive Economy Lab surveys over the course of 2020, as part of a separate research study. This group of prior survey respondents was randomly divided into waves of 1,000 people each for the Voices of Chicago project. Responses were weighted to represent the Dept. of Housing’s overall applicant pool, which we refer to here as “housing assistance applicants.”
Why it’s important: The survey tracks experiences we know are a major part of housing instability – like doubling up and informal eviction – but are not often quantified, since they don’t appear in traditional data sources.
Keep in mind: Since responses are weighted to represent housing assistance applicants, survey results are not representative of the Chicago population at large or of Chicago low-income renters. The weighting process is limited by the data available; for more details, see the “Methodology” section below.
Compared to low-income renters across Chicago metro area (defined as those with less than 60% Area Median Income), housing assistance applicants are more likely to be Hispanic and less likely to be Black or white. Though exact income for applicants was not collected, the majority of survey respondents have household incomes between $0 and $3,000 per month.
About half of housing assistance applicants were behind on rent in late November; among those applicants, median back rent owed is about $2,200. Average debt among those who are behind is about $3,700, indicating that a portion of applicants have much higher amounts of back rent. The share of applicants living doubled up in someone else’s home is about 9%.
Rent payment has stayed fairly constant through 2021, and tenants remain worried about eviction. 60 to 70 percent of housing assistance applicants are reporting paying full rent the most recent month, and a similar share say they are confident in paying next month’s rent. Between 10 and 25 percent are reporting they did not pay any rent at all the most recent month. Meanwhile, a majority of respondents consistently have some level of worry about eviction.
Among housing assistance applicants, forced moves and threats by landlords have been relatively common. Paid moves are generally reported more frequently than lockouts. Rates of forced moves and landlord threats are especially elevated among applicants who did not pay full rent in the most recent month – as of late November, 19% had experienced a forced move, lockout, or paid move, and 22% had experienced a threat of eviction since the beginning of the pandemic.
Survey population: The Chicago Department of Housing launched an emergency housing assistance program in the spring of 2020, distributing one-time unconditional grants directly to households financially affected by the pandemic. IEL surveyed applicants to the program in May, August, and December of 2020. Anyone who responded to one of IEL’s surveys and who reported being a Chicago renter in their most recent survey was included in the Voices of Chicago survey pool. The pool was randomly divided into biweekly waves of 1,000 people each, launching in February of 2021.
Survey questions: 1. “Did you / your household pay your full rent for the most recent month?”
2. “Can you / your household pay your rent for next month? (If your landlord told you that you do not have to pay the full amount next month, can you pay the amount they asked for?)”
3. “How worried are you about being evicted in the next two months?”
4. “Are you currently living as a temporary guest in someone else’s home until you get back on your feet financially?”
5. “Since March 2020, has your current or past landlord done any of the following? Please choose all that apply.” Note: Question wording changed slightly during Wave 4 for clarity.
6. “How much do you owe your landlord in back rent? If you have moved since March 2020, please include any rent you owe to previous landlords. If you do not owe any rent, write 0.”
Methodology: While survey waves were randomly selected, the relatively low sample size of a given wave means a sustained pattern across multiple waves is necessary to detect actual shifts in the sample average. Survey responses are weighted to the population of all applicants to DOH’s program. Weighting was based on data available for both survey respondents and applicants, which was limited to gender and race/ethnicity. Racial and ethnic demographics for DOH applicants were imputed from name and date of birth using the gender and wru packages in the R statistical software. We note that there are many limitations to this approach, including its inability to represent gender identity other than the male/female binary, and the potential for error given its probabilistic nature. Therefore, we only use this approach where there are no alternative data and a comparison would provide important context to the analysis.
Last Update: Oct 29, 2021
6,190
+44.3%
79.8%
48.1%
$1,700
Who is represented: All callers to the HPCC, except those who are re-routed to other services.
Why it’s important: HPCC callers have self-identified as needing financial assistance to stay in their home, a critical leading indicator for housing insecurity.
Keep in mind: Not everyone who needs rental assistance is aware of and calls the HPCC, so it might not capture everyone who is at risk. Additionally, the number of calls to the HPCC could be affected by funding availability.
Compared to previous years, callers to the Homelessness Prevention Call Center during the pandemic have been more likely to be Hispanic and to be white, and have higher monthly incomes than callers pre-COVID. Nevertheless, callers continue to be disproportionately Black and female, populations that have historically faced barriers to accessing stable housing. Nearly half of callers have dependents in their household, although the share with dependents has declined since pre-COVID.
Calls to the Homelessness Prevention Call Center have increased significantly during the pandemic. With this higher demand, and fluctuations in funding availability, the call center has been unable to refer the same share of eligible callers to funding. Calls dipped during the summer of 2021, but by October there were nearly twice as many calls as the same month of 2019. A large share of eligible callers have been turned away during the pandemic due to limited funding or insufficient personnel to process requests. Though the share of eligible callers turned away has declined in recent months, 35% of eligible callers in October were still turned away.
More callers have been requesting larger amounts of assistance. The current median request is about $1,800, but the median obscures a growing number of requests for higher amounts of assistance; 15% of calls in October requested more than $5,000 in assistance. The most commonly reported reasons for calling over the last 90 days were job loss (one in four callers) and loss or reduction in benefits or COVID-related crisis (each representing one in eight callers).
Neighborhoods on the south side, particularly South Shore, Woodlawn, and Englewood, have seen both a high number of recent calls per household and an increase in calls since before the pandemic. ZIPs containing Austin, Avalon Park, Burnside, Chatham, and Greater Grand Crossing have also seen a high rate of recent calls. Other neighborhoods (including Belmont Craig, Hermosa, Irving Park, Portage Park, and Rogers Park) have seen upticks in HPCC calls but started the pandemic at much lower rates.
While calls increased across the city, the gap between high-call ZIPs and other neighborhoods widened during the pandemic. In February 2021, lower-call ZIPs saw about 3 times the call rate than they did a year earlier, while the highest-call ZIP – South Shore and Woodlawn – saw a rate 7 times a year earlier. The share of callers found eligible for assistance has been increasing across the city since the pandemic began.
More about the HPCC: Each HPCC caller not diverted to alternative programs is evaluated for eligibility to State Homeless Prevention Funds. To be eligible for these funds, callers generally need to have a valid financial crisis that state funding can fully resolve. This means callers with need in excess of $5,000 will generally be considered ineligible, since capped State funding cannot fully eliminate their reported household debt. Callers are also limited to receiving funds once every two years. Once funding for the week runs out, all remaining eligible callers are turned away until funding is replenished. During the pandemic, many application restrictions were loosened – callers receiving unemployment became eligible and callers could receive funding for future months of rent in addition to arrears.
Methodology: For the geographic analysis, ZIP codes with fewer than 25 total calls in the last 90 days were excluded from the analysis. “2019 Baseline” refers to data from the same days or months in 2019. Community areas were matched to ZIP codes based on whether more than a quarter of their land area was in that given ZIP. Each CCA could be matched to at most three ZIPs.
Want to reach the HPCC? Call 311 and ask for “short term help.”
Last Update: Dec 01, 2021
683
+38.3%
-71.4%
524
+3.1%
-75.8%
Who is represented (eviction analysis): Eviction cases within the city of Chicago that were filed for service with the Cook County Sheriff’s Office. “Filing for service” with the sheriff’s office is a legally required step for landlords pursuing an eviction in Cook County to inform a tenant that their landlord is filing a legal case to remove them from their home.
Who is represented (foreclosure analysis): All residential foreclosure cases filed within the City of Chicago.
Why it’s important: Prior to the pandemic, eviction was disproportionately affecting Chicago’s Black households, particularly in and around South Shore, while the foreclosure crisis took a toll on the wealth of Hispanic households and other households of color. Beyond potential displacement, eviction cases can make it difficult for renters to find future housing, while foreclosures of rental properties could affect the city’s stock of affordable homes.
Keep in mind: This analysis does not include the full picture of every eviction case filed in the city, as some cases filed with the court are called off before the landlord files for service with the sheriff’s office. (Since May of 2021, access to eviction filing data has been limited as a result of state law.) Additionally, there may be a delay between when a landlord files a case with the court and when they file for service.
Cases are rising but still far below pre-pandemic rates. The number of evictions cases filed for service with the sheriff’s office in November 2021 was 71% lower than the rate during the same month of 2019. Meanwhile, the second quarter of 2021 saw 76% fewer foreclosure filings than the same quarter of 2019.
Though eviction rates remain low across the city compared to pre-pandemic years, the ZIP code containing South Shore has experienced the highest level of evictions filed with the sheriff’s office in the last three months, with about one eviction for every 1,000 households. The ZIP codes containing Woodlawn, Washington Park, and Hyde Park are also seeing higher eviction filing levels than other areas. Foreclosure filings remain historically low, but the south side of the city, particularly the Far South planning region, has had relatively higher rates than the rest of the city.
Eviction restrictions: The CDC and the state of Illinois both imposed moratoria on evictions that protected most Illinois renters during the pandemic, through early October 2021. To qualify, renters had to meet certain income limits and send a signed declaration to their landlord about the impact of the pandemic on their ability to pay rent.
Foreclosure restrictions: Through the pandemic, federal policy has protected most federally backed properties from foreclosure and given many homeowners additional opportunities for mortgage forbearance (temporary pauses on payments).
Methodology: Eviction data was provided at the ZIP level by the Cook County Sheriff’s Office. Foreclosure regions are based on the Chicago Department of Planning and Development’s planning districts.
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